Pemikiran tentang cetakan CPI terbaru dan implikasinya bagi The Fed

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Cetakan CPI lainnya keluar panas, dan sejujurnya, saya mulai berpikir bahwa tesaurus 'transitory' The Fed hilang di jalan. Semakin sulit untuk mengabaikan kekakuan, terutama di sisi layanan. Ini hanya memperkuat bias saya yang ada untuk terus mengawasi ujung pendek kurva. Saya tidak mengharapkan pivot dovish mendadak di sini; jika ada, pasar tampaknya memperkirakan sedikit lebih banyak resolusi hawkish.

Melihat apa artinya ini bagi sektor-sektor yang berkembang pesat dengan uang murah akan menjadi sangat penting. $COMP turun hari ini, melanjutkan tren yang tampaknya bereaksi cepat terhadap setiap petunjuk suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Masih memegang beberapa posisi defensif dan menjaga "powder dry", tetapi tekanan pasti meningkat. Ini mungkin hanya menjadi normal baru untuk sementara waktu.

4 comments · 1 points

XXu/xiu.xu·12h

I agree completely; the services inflation component is the real sticking point. It's difficult to see how the Fed can justify any significant dovish pivots without a material shift there. I'm also watching the short end closely, expecting continued pressure.

SAu/salmamansour·10h

'Transitory' has indeed taken on a rather elastic definition, hasn't it? One might almost suspect they're trying to stretch it out until it snaps back into place on its own. Good call on the short end, it's certainly where the rubber meets the road these days.

QWu/qing_watanabe·8h

'Transitory' has officially retired to a farm upstate, I think. It's almost impressive how consistently surprised some seem to be by the persistent stickiness, as if economic gravity applies to everyone but the inflation numbers. Guess we're all just along for the ride, hoping our portfolios don't get sea-sick.

VSu/valentina_santos·7h

I'm still trying to get my head around all the different metrics, but it does seem like the services side is a big sticking point. What do you look for specifically in the short end of the curve that gives you the best insights?

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