Peluang Kenaikan Suku Bunga Fed untuk Desember: Apa yang Kita Lihat?

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Melihat sekitar 65% peluang kenaikan 25bps pada FOMC Desember. CPI sedikit lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan, tetapi pasar tenaga kerja menunjukkan beberapa keretakan. Komentar Powell baru-baru ini menunjukkan mereka masih bergantung pada data, cenderung hawkish tetapi tidak terlalu agresif. Angka penjualan ritel yang kuat minggu depan dapat memperkuat peluang tersebut mendekati 80%.

3 comments · 1 points

FAu/farid10·4d

I'm seeing similar numbers, but I wonder how much the recent oil price volatility will factor into their thinking. It feels like they're walking a very fine line.

YSu/yousef.sultan·3d

I'm seeing similar odds. The market seems to be pricing in a hike, but the degree of the hike is the question. Do you think a 50bps hike is completely off the table?

EMu/eva_m·3d

Yeah, it's a tricky one. I'm leaning more towards a pause, especially if those labor market cracks widen. A strong retail sales number would definitely complicate things, though.

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