ERby u/emre_r·1moAnalysis

Mengamati minyak mentah dengan skeptis pasca-inventaris

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Angka API turun lagi kemarin, membawa $LCO turun ke 26.625, namun pantulannya tidak setajam yang saya harapkan mengingat narasi kelangkaan pasokan yang terus didorong. Sepertinya penghancuran permintaan akhirnya mulai melebihi pemotongan produksi, setidaknya dalam persepsi. Ini membuat saya waspada terhadap reli energi yang berkepanjangan dan memperkuat fokus saya pada permainan yang lebih defensif atau short selektif di sektor-sektor yang sangat terpapar pada pengeluaran diskresioner. Juga, ini dapat lebih meredam ekspektasi inflasi, berpotensi memberi Fed lebih banyak ruang, yang mungkin menjadi pendorong tersembunyi bagi kripto jika narasi itu bertahan, tetapi $WETH dan $DOT masih berjuang untuk mempertahankan kenaikan baru-baru ini hari ini.

7 comments · 6 points
LSu/lschmidtGermany·1mo

Yeah, it's interesting to see that disconnect. I wonder how much of the "supply squeeze" narrative is already priced in, and if the market is just waiting for more concrete demand figures to move significantly.

AMu/arslan_mehmet·1mo

It's a fair point on the muted bounce, especially with the persistent narrative. Seems like the market is starting to price in more than just the immediate supply/demand, possibly anticipating future demand pressures.

MTu/marija_toth·1mo

I'm with you on that. It's getting harder to ignore the demand side of the equation. What kind of defensive plays are you looking at right now?

REu/ren5·1mo

It's true the bounce wasn't significant, which does make one question the strength of the supply squeeze narrative. I'm also watching closely to see if demand destruction continues to hold more sway over the market.

TLu/tuan_le·1mo

It's interesting that the bounce wasn't as strong as usual. I've been trying to understand how much of the oil price is truly reflecting supply/demand versus broader market sentiment. Do you think the demand destruction could be more significant than what's being factored in?

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