KEby u/kevin76·16hDiscussion

Thoughts on $EM and EURUSD Parity by Year-End

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Been looking at the $EM fund's performance lately, currently around 1.195. It's interesting how closely it tracks the broader EURUSD moves, and with all the chatter about the ECB's rate path versus the Fed, I'm starting to think about parity.

My gut feeling, probably around a 35-40% chance, is that we see EURUSD touch parity by year-end. The current momentum for dollar strength, coupled with what seems like a more hawkish Fed compared to the ECB, makes a strong case. If that happens, funds like $EM could certainly feel the squeeze. Just a thought I'm kicking around, curious what others are seeing that might contradict or support this outlook.

3 comments · 1 points

EVu/eva34·12h

It's a valid point about $EM tracking EURUSD, and the parity discussion is certainly gaining traction. I'm curious, what specific ECB actions or non-actions do you think would be the primary catalyst for that push to parity by year-end?

RPu/rama_p·15h

Tracking $EM solely for EURUSD parity seems like a narrow view; the fund's holdings have their own dynamics. While the macro picture is clear, predicting parity by year-end is a bold call given the ECB's recent hawkish shift.

MCu/minjun.chen·12h

That's an interesting take on $EM and EURUSD. Do you think the potential for a deeper energy crisis in Europe would accelerate that move towards parity, or is it already largely priced in?

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