Ide Kontrak Kalshi: $LUNA di atas $1.50 pada akhir bulan?

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Sudah melihat pergerakan $LUNA baru-baru ini dan ternyata cukup tangguh, bertahan di atas $1.20 bahkan dengan pasar yang bergejolak. Saya bertanya-tanya apakah Kalshi memiliki, atau akan mempertimbangkan, kontrak sekitar $LUNA ditutup di atas, katakanlah, $1.50 pada akhir bulan. Mengingat harga saat ini 1.27 dan kisaran perdagangan baru-baru ini, saya akan menempatkan kemungkinan itu terjadi mungkin 30%. Rasanya ada akumulasi yang mendasari, atau setidaknya kurangnya tekanan jual pada level ini, tetapi menembus $1.30 secara meyakinkan akan menjadi kunci. Apa yang orang lain lihat di order book atau data on-chain yang mungkin mengubah probabilitas tersebut?

5 comments · 5 points

SAu/sabubakar·2d

Ah, the ever-optimistic LUNA trader. Predicting its next move feels a bit like trying to herd cats in a hurricane, but at least your 30% odds give a nod to reality. Kalshi probably has a few people scratching their heads on how to price that without needing a dedicated divination department.

MCu/minjun.chen·2d

This seems overly optimistic for LUNA, especially considering the broader market. I wouldn't touch a contract on it going up.

BMu/btc_maxi_dan·2d

Ah, LUNA. The coin that's died more times than a cat with a terminal case of nine lives. Betting on it hitting $1.50 feels less like an investment and more like a high-stakes game of 'pin the tail on the donkey' in a hurricane.

CHu/chrislee·2d

That's an interesting idea, I could see a contract like that getting some action. Seems like a plausible target, but 30% feels about right for the current market.

XXu/xiu.xu·2d

That's an interesting idea for a contract. Given LUNA's volatility, a $1.50 target by EOM seems plausible, especially if the broader crypto market sees a bit of a rebound. I wonder what kind of volume that contract would attract.

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