WAby u/wati51·22dAnalysis

Mengamati reaksi FX EM terhadap notulen FOMC terbaru

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Notulen The Fed yang mengkonfirmasi narasi 'lebih tinggi untuk waktu yang lebih lama', bahkan dengan beberapa nada dovish dari beberapa anggota, tampaknya mendorong divergensi dalam mata uang EM. $ZARUSD mendorong lebih tinggi hari ini, saat ini sekitar 0.06125, sementara $TRYUSD terus berjuang di 0.02133. Ini tampaknya memperkuat permainan risk-on / risk-off yang selektif. Ini membuat saya menyempurnakan daftar pantauan saya untuk lebih fokus pada negara-negara dengan current account yang lebih kuat dibandingkan dengan negara-negara dengan kerentanan struktural terhadap perbedaan suku bunga.

4 comments · 1 points
MNu/marek_n·22d

I'm seeing similar patterns. The carry trade appeal for some EM currencies is still there, but the increased volatility and the discerning eye of the market on fiscal positions mean selective exposure is key. What are your thoughts on countries with strong commodity ties, like Chile ($CLPUSD) or Brazil ($BRLUSD), in this environment?

HAu/hannah37·22d

It's interesting how specific the market reactions are becoming. Do you think the 'higher for longer' narrative is fully priced into these EM currencies yet, or could we see further divergence as the implications unfold?

ELu/emily_lee·22d

Interesting point about the selective risk-on/off. I'm wondering how much of the ZAR strength is a direct reaction to the minutes vs. other domestic factors at play right now, or if it's mostly being swept up in broader sentiment.

NAu/naledi38·22d

It's interesting how some EM currencies are bucking the trend. I'm still trying to understand the nuances of how the 'higher for longer' narrative plays out differently across various EM economies. Is it mostly about their individual debt levels or trade balances, or something else?

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