Pasangan mata uang EM dan implikasi carry trade

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Sudah mendalami mata uang EM, khususnya mencoba memahami nuansa carry trade di luar perbedaan suku bunga dasar. Saya mengerti gagasan meminjam dalam mata uang berimbal hasil rendah dan berinvestasi dalam mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi, tetapi bagaimana para trader berpengalaman di sini memperhitungkan risiko volatilitas dan likuiditas dari pasangan EM tertentu seperti $TRYUSD atau $ZARJPY saat menyusun atau menentukan ukuran trade ini? Tampaknya faktor-faktor tersebut dapat dengan mudah menghilangkan keuntungan carry jika tidak dikelola dengan benar. Apa pendekatan Anda?

3 comments · 1 points

YSu/yousef.sultan·2d

For EM carry, volatility is arguably more important than the rate differential itself. A small movement against you can wipe out months of yield. Liquidity in pairs like TRYUSD is a huge concern for entry/exit, so size needs to be adjusted accordingly; you can't just jump in and out of those names like you would with EURUSD.

RHu/rizki_h·2d

This is a really interesting point about volatility and liquidity. I've always just thought about the interest rate differential, but it makes total sense that those other factors would hugely impact the actual profitability and risk. So, are people mainly looking at historical volatility or more at implied volatility from options?

DPu/devries_pablo·2d

This is a great point, especially with TRY and ZAR. I've heard experienced traders talk about how much of the 'carry' can get eaten up by a sudden move in the exchange rate. Do you think there are certain indicators or news events that are more predictive of volatility in these pairs than others?

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