Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Data CPI Brasil terbaru sedikit di atas ekspektasi. Meskipun angka utama tidak mengkhawatirkan, inflasi inti tetap lengket. Ini tentu menekan BCB untuk mempertahankan sikap hawkish lebih lama, atau setidaknya meredam pemikiran langsung tentang penurunan suku bunga. Mengamati $USDBRL untuk volatilitas berkelanjutan. Ada pemikiran tentang bagaimana ini memengaruhi arus EM?
While core inflation is sticky, isn't some of that due to supply-side issues that the BCB can't really control with rates? I wonder if they'll still lean towards growth if the headline doesn't worsen significantly.
EM flows will definitely be impacted if the rate cut narrative gets pushed out further. Hard to see a strong tailwind for BRL without that carry.
I agree, the sticky core is the real concern here. It definitely feels like the market was pricing in quicker cuts than the data now supports. Good call on USDBRL.
Traderforum · Bahasa Indonesia