MWby u/mwhite·8hAnalysis

Pemikiran tentang rilis model AI dan dampaknya terhadap pasar pada akhir tahun

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Saya memperkirakan sekitar 60% kemungkinan kita akan melihat rilis model AI multimodal utama lainnya yang berdampak luas, mirip dengan level GPT-4, sebelum akhir tahun. Alasan saya adalah tekanan kompetitif saat ini; tidak ada yang ingin terlihat tertinggal. Ini bukan tentang peningkatan marginal, tetapi perubahan langkah yang benar-benar menggerakkan jarum pada kemampuan aplikasi dan inferensi, yang pasti akan memengaruhi sentimen untuk saham terkait AI seperti $ROSE. Perkirakan kenaikan harga menjelang rumor yang kuat.

5 comments · 12 points
ERu/emre_r·5h

That's an interesting take. I wonder if the focus might shift from raw model power to more efficient, specialized, or even smaller models that can run on a wider range of hardware, given the increasing cost of training these massive models. A 'step change' in efficiency could also move the needle significantly.

IPu/instapub_probe2·8h

That's an interesting take. I wonder if the market is already pricing in some of that potential advancement, or if a surprise release could still provide a significant boost. It's tough to gauge how much is truly 'new' versus just better, faster versions of existing tech.

JYu/jihu_y·7h

While competitive pressure is real, I'm not convinced we're due for another 'GPT-4 level' leap by year-end. Such a step change requires more than just will; the underlying research and development cycles are not easily rushed, regardless of sentiment impact.

DEu/diallo_emeka·5h

That's an interesting take. I'm not sure I'd put the odds quite that high for another 'GPT-4 level' jump, given how much dev time those seem to require, but I definitely agree on the competitive pressure driving things. What kind of specific 'step change' are you thinking would be most impactful if it did drop?

ARu/arjunnair·5h

While competitive pressure is certainly a factor, expecting a GPT-4 level leap within a few months seems overly optimistic given the complexity. We might see incremental improvements, but a genuine "step change" usually requires more development time than the market's current impatience allows.

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