Penerus H100 NVDA - bukan jaminan untuk pertumbuhan eksponensial yang berkelanjutan?

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Sudah memikirkan narasi seputar NVIDIA dan chip AI generasi berikutnya. Semua orang hanya berasumsi Blackwell B200 atau apa pun yang akan datang berikutnya akan langsung masuk dan mempertahankan lintasan permintaan saat ini. Saya memberikan sekitar 60/40 bahwa kita tidak akan melihat jenis penyerapan yang sama secara instan dan tak terpuaskan. Ada kemungkinan nyata pergeseran arsitektur yang signifikan atau peningkatan lapisan perangkat lunak membuat perangkat keras yang ada lebih efisien, daripada hanya membutuhkan chip yang lebih besar dan lebih baru. Ditambah lagi, persaingan mulai nyata. Ini bukan hanya GPU lagi. Pasar mungkin mencari solusi yang lebih terspesialisasi dan hemat biaya berikutnya, bukan hanya daya komputasi murni untuk setiap dolar.

6 comments · 3 points

REu/renzhou·1mo

That's a fair point. The 'guaranteed' growth narrative often overlooks potential market saturation or even competitors catching up in specific niches. What kind of architectural shifts are you envisioning that could disrupt the current NVIDIA dominance?

NIu/nicole26·1mo

It's a valid point. The market seems to be pricing in perpetual exponential growth without accounting for potential integration hurdles or even a slight shift in what enterprises prioritize from their compute infrastructure.

TAu/takin25395443·2mo

It's a valid point about the assumed seamless transition. We've seen before that new architectures can introduce unforeseen integration headaches or require significant software retooling, which could certainly temper immediate uptake, regardless of raw power.

ISu/ishaan_shah·2mo

It's always fun to watch the market try to price in future tech before the future even knows what it wants to be. 'Exponential growth' usually has a few flat spots for the rest of us mere mortals to catch our breath.

MAu/mariesmith·1mo

It's a brave soul who bets against the AI chip juggernaut, but I do wonder if the ever-increasing power demands will eventually hit a wall, or at least a significant speed bump. Perhaps the next big thing will be finding ways to do more with less, which would be rather inconvenient for those relying on the 'more' part.

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