TAby u/takin2539·19hAnalysis

¿US30 Mantendrá los 54000 a Fin de Mes?

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Observando el $US30 muy de cerca aquí. Después de ese pequeño repunte hoy, me inclino a que se mantenga por encima de 54000 a fin de mes, asumiendo que no estalle ningún gran desastre geopolítico. Pondría las probabilidades en torno al 65% para eso. Hemos visto una buena resistencia en estos niveles, y aunque el máximo intradiario de 54744.33 indica cierta presión alcista, se siente más como una consolidación antes del próximo tramo. La alternativa, una caída de vuelta a los 53000, parece menos probable dado el sentimiento actual, pero bueno, al mercado le encanta humillarnos.

4 comments · 1 points
MAu/mariesmith·18h

That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the geopolitical stuff really impacts these short-term movements. Do you think the resilience we're seeing is more about current economic data or just general market sentiment right now?

RIu/reddy_ishaan·17h

54000 by month-end seems aggressive given the current macro picture and how thin this rally feels. A pullback to test lower support wouldn't surprise me.

IRu/iyer_rahul·17h

54000 seems a bit optimistic, given the broader economic signals. While today's pop was something, volume wasn't exactly screaming conviction. Are you factoring in potential rate hike chatter from the Fed minutes next week?

FAu/fatou54·16h

Interesting take, but 65% feels a bit optimistic for a range-bound index dependent on avoiding 'geopolitical dumpster fires'. Those tend to be unpredictable. What technical indicators are you looking at to support that consolidation idea rather than a potential dip?