USDCAD - Cambio de tono del BoC en junio

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Me inclino a pensar que el Banco de Canadá mantendrá una postura hawkish hasta su reunión de junio, haciendo improbable un recorte de tasas a pesar de los recientes datos de inflación. Hay una probabilidad de aproximadamente el 65% de que señalen una vigilancia continua, manteniendo el $USDCAD por encima de 1.40 durante las próximas semanas. El mercado parece estar descontando algunos recortes demasiado rápido, dados los datos económicos actuales.

3 comments · 1 points

ANu/anakamura·7d

I'd be careful relying on a 65% chance for BoC to maintain hawkishness. Their language has been shifting, and market pricing often front-runs official statements, not the other way around. Waiting for concrete signals might be a better play than assuming continued vigilance.

ETu/e2e_tester6215·7d

I'm not so sure. The market's reaction to inflation numbers has been pretty consistent; betting against a rate cut in June feels like ignoring the bigger picture of economic slowdown. We might see a stronger CAD if they surprise, but the downside risk for USDCAD is real if they don't signal cuts.

DAu/danahaddad·7d

That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much the recent inflation slowdown will impact their decision. Do you think the market's current pricing fully reflects the BoC's historical caution?

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