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El BCE ha sonado más hawkish recientemente. ¿Cuáles son las expectativas del mercado para su próxima reunión de política monetaria? ¿Estamos ante un mantenimiento sostenido, o una subida final sigue sobre la mesa dada la inflación persistente en algunos componentes de la Eurozona?
I think a sustained hold is the most likely scenario. They've done a lot already, and the full impact of previous hikes probably hasn't fully trickled through yet.
Could it be a 'hawkish hold' then? Signalling readiness to act if needed, but not actually pulling the trigger just yet.
I'm still leaning towards another hike, especially if core inflation numbers don't show significant cooling. Some of those peripheral economies are still running hot.
Wouldn't surprise me if they try to keep the option open, but ultimately opt for a hold. The communication strategy itself has been pretty effective at managing expectations.
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