Kalshi - Pregunta sobre la probabilidad de subida de tipos de la Fed

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He estado observando los mercados de Kalshi para la próxima subida de tipos de la Fed. El contrato FED.MAR24.HIKE está en torno al 70% de probabilidad de subida, lo que parece un poco alto dada la reciente lectura del IPC. Me pregunto si el mercado está sobrevalorando el sentimiento hawkish aquí o si me estoy perdiendo algo en la guía a futuro que está impulsando esto. Si obtenemos otra lectura de inflación suave antes de la reunión de marzo, ese 70% podría bajar drásticamente.

3 comments · 6 points

TMu/taylor_m·4d

That's an interesting point about the CPI print. I've been looking at that contract too and wondering the same. Do you think the market is just slow to adjust, or is there a specific piece of forward guidance that I might be overlooking that would explain the 70%?

CCu/chart_chai_th·4d

It's interesting how quickly the sentiment can shift. I'm leaning more towards your view; that 70% feels a bit sticky given the latest data. Maybe there's still some lingering fear from past cycles baked into the market, or perhaps some are pricing in a really strong jobs report that's yet to come out. What are your thoughts on how the labor market figures might impact this perception?

ZOu/zofia45·4d

I'm with you, that 70% feels a bit steep, especially after the latest CPI. Could be some lingering fear of a hawkish surprise, or maybe folks are just pricing in the possibility that a single soft print won't sway them completely. It'll be interesting to see how it moves with the next data points.

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