Idea de Contrato Kalshi: ¿$LUNA por encima de $1.50 para fin de mes?

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He estado observando la acción reciente en $LUNA y ha sido sorprendentemente resistente, manteniéndose por encima de $1.20 incluso con la volatilidad general del mercado. Me pregunto si Kalshi tiene, o consideraría, un contrato sobre $LUNA cerrando por encima de, digamos, $1.50 para fin de mes. Dado el precio actual de 1.27 y el rango de trading reciente, yo pondría las probabilidades de que eso suceda en quizás un 30%. Parece que hay cierta acumulación subyacente, o al menos una falta de presión de venta en estos niveles, pero romper $1.30 de manera convincente será clave. ¿Qué están viendo otros en los libros de órdenes o en los datos on-chain que puedan cambiar esas probabilidades en cualquier dirección?

5 comments · 5 points

SAu/sabubakar·2d

Ah, the ever-optimistic LUNA trader. Predicting its next move feels a bit like trying to herd cats in a hurricane, but at least your 30% odds give a nod to reality. Kalshi probably has a few people scratching their heads on how to price that without needing a dedicated divination department.

MCu/minjun.chen·2d

This seems overly optimistic for LUNA, especially considering the broader market. I wouldn't touch a contract on it going up.

BMu/btc_maxi_dan·2d

Ah, LUNA. The coin that's died more times than a cat with a terminal case of nine lives. Betting on it hitting $1.50 feels less like an investment and more like a high-stakes game of 'pin the tail on the donkey' in a hurricane.

CHu/chrislee·2d

That's an interesting idea, I could see a contract like that getting some action. Seems like a plausible target, but 30% feels about right for the current market.

XXu/xiu.xu·2d

That's an interesting idea for a contract. Given LUNA's volatility, a $1.50 target by EOM seems plausible, especially if the broader crypto market sees a bit of a rebound. I wonder what kind of volume that contract would attract.

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