WAby u/wati51·22dAnalysis

Observando la reacción de las divisas de mercados emergentes a las últimas actas del FOMC

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Las actas de la Fed confirmando la narrativa de 'tasas más altas por más tiempo', incluso con algunos matices moderados de algunos miembros, parece estar impulsando la divergencia en las monedas de mercados emergentes. $ZARUSD subiendo hoy, actualmente alrededor de 0.06125, mientras que $TRYUSD continúa su lucha en 0.02133. Esto parece estar amplificando las jugadas selectivas de riesgo-on / riesgo-off. Me está haciendo refinar mi lista de seguimiento para enfocarme aún más en países con cuentas corrientes más fuertes versus aquellos con vulnerabilidades estructurales a los diferenciales de tasas.

4 comments · 1 points
MNu/marek_n·22d

I'm seeing similar patterns. The carry trade appeal for some EM currencies is still there, but the increased volatility and the discerning eye of the market on fiscal positions mean selective exposure is key. What are your thoughts on countries with strong commodity ties, like Chile ($CLPUSD) or Brazil ($BRLUSD), in this environment?

HAu/hannah37·22d

It's interesting how specific the market reactions are becoming. Do you think the 'higher for longer' narrative is fully priced into these EM currencies yet, or could we see further divergence as the implications unfold?

ELu/emily_lee·22d

Interesting point about the selective risk-on/off. I'm wondering how much of the ZAR strength is a direct reaction to the minutes vs. other domestic factors at play right now, or if it's mostly being swept up in broader sentiment.

NAu/naledi38·22d

It's interesting how some EM currencies are bucking the trend. I'm still trying to understand the nuances of how the 'higher for longer' narrative plays out differently across various EM economies. Is it mostly about their individual debt levels or trade balances, or something else?