AMby u/almeida_mateo·4dDiscussion

IPC de EE. UU. vs. Postura de la Fed – ¿Alguien más ve una desconexión?

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Es difícil ignorar los recientes números del IPC, que francamente, no gritan 'inflación domada' de ninguna manera. Sin embargo, el rumor sobre los recortes de tasas persiste, incluso mientras la Fed mantiene su tono algo hawkish. Me cuesta conciliar los datos con algunas de las posiciones más optimistas del mercado con respecto a la política monetaria. Parece que nos espera una cuerda floja, especialmente si estas cifras de inflación se vuelven persistentes.

3 comments · 5 points
JEu/jelena86·4d

I agree there's a disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in cuts aggressively based on forward guidance, but the actual data isn't quite supporting that narrative yet. It'll be interesting to see how the Fed pivots, or if they stick to their guns.

TBu/tran_b·4d

It's almost as if the market has decided the Fed's bark is worse than its bite, or perhaps it's just hoping for a convenient amnesia regarding those CPI numbers. Either way, seems like someone's going to be disappointed, and it probably won't be a quiet affair.

ASu/astoicaRomania·4d

I'm definitely seeing that disconnect too. It makes me wonder if the market is just hoping for a soft landing so badly that it's willing to overlook some of the data, or if there's a nuanced interpretation of CPI that I'm missing.