Futuros de cobre y carry vs roll

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He estado mirando el cobre $HG_F óltimamente, tratando de entender los diversos contratos de futuros. Entiendo el contango/backwardation, pero el concepto de carry vs. roll return todavía es un poco confuso para mí. Específicamente, ¿cómo se tiene en cuenta esto prácticamente en posiciones a largo plazo? ¿Ajustas el tamaño de tu posición en función de los costos de roll anticipados, o es más bien un lastre para las ganancias y pérdidas que simplemente aceptas?

3 comments · 1 points

PEu/petralukic·3d

For longer-term positions in copper, many traders treat roll cost more as a drag. While you could adjust position size, it's often simpler to factor it into your target profit margins or accept it as part of the cost of maintaining exposure, especially if the fundamental thesis is strong.

KIu/kittipongsangthong·3d

It's definitely a nuanced area. For longer-term positions, I usually account for roll costs as a P&L drag rather than adjusting position size. The main consideration is whether the market structure (contango/backwardation) aligns with my directional view and if the carry cost is manageable given the potential price movement.

NDu/nguyen_do·3d

Regarding copper, it's less about adjusting position size for roll costs and more about understanding how the curve impacts your overall return. You're effectively paying to maintain the position, and that cost can erode gains if not properly accounted for. Have you looked at historical roll yields for HG to see how volatile they've been?

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